The Conservatives just suffered their worst general election defeat in over 250 years, and already the battle over the future of the party has begun. Some of the potential leadership contenders argue that the party needs to move to the right and re-attract many of the voters they lost to Reform UK, while other potential leadership contenders argue that the party needs to move to the centre and re-attract many of the voters they lost to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party.
The monumental swing from the Conservatives to Reform UK was the big story of this election, but tactical voting on the left also played a role in amplifying the scale of their defeat. So which of these played the bigger role in the Conservatives’ defeat, and which do the Conservatives need to focus on attracting back to their party?
Looking at the Conservative-Reform Swing
The Reform UK vote increased by 12.4% compared to the Brexit Party vote in 2019. It’s unlikely that all of increase came from the Conservatives, but for this exericse, we’ll look at what the election would have looked like if a Conservative-to-Reform swing were the only swing across the country.
Even if the Labour vote were to not change an inch, a significant drop in the Conservative vote would result in an effective swing to Labour, as in many cases, the Conservative vote would fall below where Labour finished. If that swing were universal across Great Britain, the Conservatives would have lost 80 seats. That would mean the loss of the Conservatives’ majority, though they would still remain the largest party in the House of Commons.
But Reform’s vote share wasn’t uniform across Great Britain; Reform, like all parties, targeted particular seats, and achieved considerably larger swings in those seats they were targeting (including a 46.2% swing in Clacton). That increased swing would do a bit more damage to the Conservatives, though they’d remain the largest party (but not by enough to be able to govern).
Excluding the Conservative-Reform Swing
Even though there was a large swing from the Conservatives to Reform, there were still more than 7pp of swing away from the Conservatives that went elsewhere. That swing didn’t all go to a single party, but was spread between Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Greens.
Even with the actual results as they were, including Reform, a uniform swing between the parties would have produced a very small Labour majority. But there was a high degree of anti-Conservative tactical voting in this election, and this, combined with the collapse of the SNP in Scotland, led to Labour’s landslide.
Even in the absence of the swing to Reform, that anti-Conservative tactical voting would have done enough damage to the Tories. That tactical voting would have been enough to make Labour to become the largest party in the House of Commons, if only by a single seat, and Labour would almost certainly be able to form a government (albeit with help).
How can the Conservatives win again?
Some in the Conservative Party argue that, in order to return to government, they need to win back voters who have gone to Reform. Others argue that they need to win back voters who have gone to Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens if they want to return to power.
The reality is that neither of these, on their own, will be sufficient. The Conservatives win government by being able to hold together a broad coalition of voters, from the “One Nation” faction of Cameron and May to the populist faction of Johnson and Truss. Nothing short of rebuilding that broad coalition will be enough to bring the Conservatives back to government, and if they focus on one side or the other, they will remain in the political wilderness for many years to come.
Rishi Sunak has already announced his resignation as Leader of the Conservative Party. At the time of writing, the arrangements to elect his successor have yet to be decided.
