Once every decade, following the results of the census, Canada goes through the process of redistributing House of Commons seats between the provinces, and determining the boundaries between new ridings. This decade’s process kicked off in Spring 2022, and the ten provincial commissions published their reports, which contain their recommended new riding boundaries, between November 2022 and February 2023.
These reports are not the final stage of this process; even though Canadians have had a chance to have their input through public hearings, MPs now have a chance to object to these recommendations. According to Elections Canada, the final boundaries are due to be proclaimed into law in September 2023, and be used in the first general election from April 2024 onwards.
But we can take a look at these reports to see the effect that they would have on the parties in the House of Commons.
Provincial Seat Allocation
The formula that is used to distribute seats in the House of Commons to the provinces is set out in the Constitution. The formula involves the following steps for each province:
- Determine an initial seat allocation by dividing the province’s population by a shared quotient, which rises with population growth
- If this allocation is less than the number of seats the province has in the Senate, or less than the number of seats the province had in 2021, then bring the allocation up to this level (Senatorial Clause, Grandfather Clause)
- If this allocation would result in a province that was previously over-represented becoming under-represented, add enough seats to make this no longer the case (Representation Rule)
Each of Canada’s three territories gets one seat under a separate rule.
Prior to this decade’s process, the Grandfather Clause was based on the number of seats a province had in 1985 (shortly after the Constitution was patriated to Canada), but it was amended in 2022 to prevent Québec from losing a seat in this redistribution. This means that seven of Canada’s ten provinces have their seats covered by the Senatorial and/or Grandfather Clauses in this cycle, and are therefore over-represented relative to their populations.
Following this change, there will be a total of 343 seats in the House of Commons, which is five more than there are presently. Alberta will gain three seats, while Ontario and British Columbia will gain one seat each.
Effects on the Parties
With the publication of all ten commission reports, we can now look at all of the polling stations used in the 2021 election, and map them to the proposed ridings in which they’d be situated. Combining this with the poll-by-poll results from Elections Canada, we can estimate what the last election would have produced if it had been contested using these proposed ridings.
The Conservatives are the main beneficiaries of these proposed boundaries. Despite a net of five new seats being created in the House of Commons, the Conservatives finish this process with 11 more seats under these proposed ridings than under the old ones, while the Liberals find themselves losing seven seats.
However, gaining more seats doesn’t make a majority government easier if they’re all marginal seats. So in order to see how much closer a party is to winning a majority, we want to look at the amount by which they lost their majority-winning seat. On this measure, these boundaries make it slightly more difficult for the Liberals to win a majority, while for the Conservatives the difficulty is virtually unchanged.
Seat Changes
Atlantic Canada
The total number of seats in the four Atlantic provinces doesn’t change. While ridings in some parts of the region have been redrawn from scratch, there are no seats that change hands in the region as a result of this round of redistribution.
Québec
The Bloc Québécois have gained two seats, both at the expense of the Liberals.
One of these seats were won by the Liberals by very thin margins. Brome — Missisquoi, which the Liberals won by 197 votes, takes in a few Bloc-leaning polling stations from surrounding ridings, and becomes a notional Bloc seat by 103 votes. It becomes, by my calculations, the second most marginal of all of the new ridings in all of Canada.
The riding of Gaspésie — Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, won by Liberals on a margin of 2,618 votes, wasn’t a particularly tight seat in 2021. However, its successor riding, Gaspésie — Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine — Listuguj, takes in a considerable part of the Bloc seat of Avignon — La Mitis — Matane — Matapédia; this part being transferred contains around 9,600 Bloc votes compared to only 4,500 Liberal votes. This is more than enough for this seat to switch to the Bloc, with a 2,584 vote margin for the Liberals to overcome to take it back.
Ontario
Despite Ontario only gaining one seat, there are a good handful of seats moving around here relative to other parts of the country.
The NDP seat of Algoma — Manitoulin — Kapuskasing, in the north east of the province, is split into its three constituent parts and combined with their respective neighbours. Kapuskasing combines with parts of Timmins — James Bay, also an NDP seat, while Manitoulin combines with Nickel Belt, a Liberal seat; both of these seats remain notionally as they were. Algoma combines with Sault Ste. Marie, a marginal Liberal seat, but as the Liberals came in third in Algoma, the new seat of Sault Ste. Marie — Algoma becomes notionally Conservative.
With one seat disappearing in the north, that means two new seats will need to be created in the south. One of these seats is in Brampton; the Liberals won all five seats here in 2021, and a sixth seat, Brampton — Chinguacousy Park, becomes notionally Liberal. On the other side of the GTA, the new seat of York—Durham combines parts of the Conservative seats of Durham, York — Simcoe, and small parts of other nearby seats, and gives the second new seat to the Conservatives.
In addition to these, some further reorganisations result in the Liberals losing three seats to other parties. Part of the seat of Niagara Centre, which the Liberals won by 2,252, moves out into Niagara West, while the remainder combines with the Conservative-leaning southern part of Niagara Falls to create a notionally-Conservative Niagara South riding. Meanwhile, in Toronto, some of the more Liberal-leaning parts of Spadina — Fort York move next door into University — Rosedale, causing the new Spadina — Harbourfront seat to become a notional NDP gain.
The marginal seat of Kitchener — Conestoga, also won by the Liberals in 2021, takes in part of Kitchener Centre, which was won by the Greens. This is a bit of an unusual situation as the Liberal candidate in Kitchener Centre, Raj Saini, ended his campaign when allegations of sexual misconduct emerged (he was later cleared of these allegations by the House of Commons). As it was too late for the Liberals to nominate a new candidate, the party’s vote in that riding was artificially low. As a result, the relatively modest number of Conservatives votes moving from Kitchener Centre to Kitchener — Conestoga is enough to make it notionally Conservative by 203 votes. If these allegations were not made, or if the Liberals were able to put up another candidate, then Kitchener — Conestoga would likely have remained a notionally Liberal seat after redistribution.
Manitoba & Saskatchewan
The northern Manitoba riding of Churchill — Keewatinook Aski was won by the NDP by 3,118 votes in 2021. However, the new riding expands to the south, taking in a number of polling stations from its two heavily-Conservative neighbours, and these polling stations bring around 6,700 Conservative voters into the riding and only 1,500 NDP voters. This allows the Conservatives to take this seat by a notional 2,085 votes.
Alberta
Alberta, which gained three seats from redistribution, can largely be divided into three areas: Calgary has gained one seat, Edmonton keeps the same number of seats, and the rest of Alberta has gained two seats.
The one seat that the Liberals won in Edmonton in 2021, Edmonton Centre (by 615 votes), flips to the Conservatives under the new boundaries. The new Edmonton Centre takes in Conservative-leaning areas from the Edmonton Griesbach and Edmonton West ridings, and not enough Conservative-leaning areas leave the Edmonton Centre riding to fully counter this. This gives the new Edmonton Centre riding a notional Conservative win by 531 votes.
In Calgary, the Liberal-leaning parts of Calgary Skyview get brought into the new Calgary McKnight riding; this makes Calgary McKnight a notional Liberal seat, while Calgary Skyview switches to notionally Conservative.
Outside the two main cities, all of the seats were won by Conservatives in 2021. This makes it easy for the new seats of Parkland and Jasper — Banff — Canmore to become Conservative seats.
British Columbia
British Columbia was given one additional seat in the redistribution. The seat that looks the least like any existing seat is Abbotsford — South Langley, which is made up of near-equal parts of the Conservative seats of Abbotsford and Langley — Aldergrove. This new seat is a pretty safe seat for the Conservatives.
There is also a seat shift in Metro Vancouver, where the Liberals lose a seat to the Conservatives. The seat of Richmond Centre takes in some of the Conservative-leaning areas of the old Vancouver Granville riding, while losing some of its more Liberal-leaning areas to next-door Richmond East — Steveston. This results in the new Richmond Centre — Malpole going from a Liberal win by 772 votes to a notionally Conservative win by 1,180.
When do these maps take effect?
According to Elections Canada, new ridings will be used in the first general election from April 2024 onwards. If a general election is held before this, it will use the existing ridings.
There is still one final stage where these boundaries are examined by MPs, who will have a chance to make objections to the commissions. This means that these may change slightly, and it may affect some of the more marginal seats, but nothing funamental should come out of it.
Under federal fixed-date election laws, the next election is to be held no later than October 20, 2025.
Methodology: This analysis combines the poll-by-poll results and the polling division boundaries map for 2021 from Elections Canada, and the riding maps from the reports of the ten provincial redistricting commissions. Votes from advance polls are allocated proportionally to the polling divisions covered by each poll, and votes from special ballots are allocated proportionally to the polling divisions in the riding. The polling division map is then laid on top of the post-redistricting riding maps, and the votes for each polling division are allocated to the riding(s) that they overlap.
