It’s not been a bad week for the UK Conservatives. It’s been far, far worse than that.
The reaction to last week’s fiscal statement has been swift and severe. The interest rate that His Majesty’s Government is charged to borrow went up by a full percentage point in three trading days before the Bank of England intervened in the Gilt markets. The British Pound declined to its lowest level against the US Dollar ever, again before the Bank of England intervened.
While the Bank of England’s intervention allowed the markets to return to the levels they were a week ago, one area where the Bank cannot intervene is public opinion. That has turned against the Conservatives at an unprecedented speed, which will surely be causing significant concern as the party gathers at its annual conference in Birmingham over the next few days.
Six pollsters released polls with regional breakdowns since the fiscal statement was made last Friday. They suggest that, if an election were to be held today, the Conservatives face the worst election result not just in their history, but worse than any in the Tory Party that they replaced in 1834. The average swing would point to the Conservatives finishing with fewer than 100 seats, which would leave a large share of the cabinet, including the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and the Chancellor.
There is a large degree of uncertainty surrounding this, though. While the polls are consistent in pointing to humongous Labour leads, there is a high level of variation as to the amount of those leads. YouGov’s poll a few days ago made headlines for giving a 33-point lead, but two other polls since have put that lead into the 30s. Other polls put that lead into the high teens to low 20s. But none of them would suggest anything near a Conservative government.
All of these polls are disasters for the Conservatives, as none of them have them even reaching 200 on the central seat projection. But two polls in particular are devastating, as they imply that it would be the Scottish National Party, and not the Conservatives, who would most likely form the official opposition. If this were to materialise, it would be the biggest collapse of any UK political party, bigger and faster than the collapse of the Liberal Party in the early 20th century.
Words really cannot describe how extraordinary this week has been in UK polling. Even to contemplate the possibility of the Conservatives going from a majority government to third place is something that is rarely seen anywhere in the world, and can only happen as a result of the most severe of public swings. As the Conservatives head into their annual conference in Birmingham this weekend, delegates will have to have serious discussions about how to prevent the complete collapse of their party in just under two years.
As the Fixed Term Parliament Act has been repealed, there is no scheduled date for the next general election. The fixed date would have been 2 May 2024, though now it can be held as late as 23 January 2025.
