Two years ago this month, following his defeat in the Conservative Party leadership election, former cabinet minister Maxime Bernier left his party to form the People’s Party of Canada. Before the election campaign started, the far-right party was polling only slightly above the vote share they achieved in the 2019 election. Over the campaign, though, support for the party started to grow, and while they do remain in the single digits in the current polling average, they have overtaken the Green Party in the majority of recent polls.
However, in a first past the post electoral system, this can become a double-edged sword. Winning a seat in the House of Commons would be a big achievement for them, but if they fail then they could inadvertently help parties with whom they have the least in common. This week, we look at both sides of this coin.
Winning a Seat
Most opinion polls only publish figures at the provincial or multi-provincial level, with very few publishing for different regions within a province. This makes it very difficult to ascertain whether an emerging party would be able to win a seat or not. If their support within a province is concentrated in a single city, then a seat or two can definitely be won; if their support is spread evenly across each province, then they will come nowhere close.
The last time a new party entered the House of Commons at a general election was in 2011, when Elizabeth May, who at the time was Green Party Leader, won the seat of Saanich — Gulf Islands on Vancouver Island. It’s perhaps therefore worth comparing where the Green Party were a decade ago with where the People’s Party is now.
Top Three Finishes
The first thing I want to look at is where the respective parties finished in each riding in the previous no-seat elections. If a smaller party finishes in the top three in a riding, that gives them a base that a star candidate, such as a party leader, can build upon to win that seat.
In 2008, the Green Party won no seats, but did have a total of 43 top-three finishes across the country, including five second-place finishes. One of their third-place finishes was Saanich — Gulf Islands, where the Green Party candidate Andrew Lewis finished in third place with just over 10% of the vote. This was, by no means, the top seat for the Green Party, but it was enough of a base that Elizabeth May could build upon when she entered the riding and defeat the Conservative incumbent there in 2011.
In 2019, the People’s Party only had one top-three finish, which is in the seat of Beauce where M. Bernier held as a Conservative for over a decade. This makes it difficult for the party to find a riding with a sufficient base of People’s Party support for the leader to build upon to take a seat, and the name-recognition factor that party leaders can often use to give their parties a relative boost already existed in the previous election, and thus would not be a new factor there this time around.
Vote Share
Of course, the Green Party did achieve a higher vote share in 2008 than the People’s Party did in 2019. So we’ll want to look at how spread out the parties’ seat results were relative to their respective national averages. If there is a wider spread of peaks and troughs, where the party outperforms in some ridings and underperforms in others, that presents a far greater opportunity to win seats than if the party’s performance is consistent across the country.
In 2008, the Green Party finished within 1% of their national total in only a quarter of ridings, with six candidates finishing 10% or more ahead of their party nationally (one of whom being Mrs. May in Central Nova). This variation indicates that their support at the time was in the peaks and troughs that puts a smaller party on the path towards a seat in the House of Commons.
For the People’s Party, over 80% of their candidates in 2019 finished within 1% of their national total, with only M. Bernier himself finishing more than 4% ahead of his party. That consistency does not give the party the clear, concentrated base that they need to take their first seat.
Boosting the Liberals
Supporters of the People’s Party have made their presence known at events attended by Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (though M. Bernier has condemned the violence that has taken place). The irony of this is that the support that the People’s Party has picked up could help the Liberals form government.
The only poll which asks voters about second choice does’t show the second choices of People’s Party voters, so it’s hard to say how many People’s Party voters would vote Conservative as an alternative. So we’ll look at both the extreme-yet-unlikely scenario where all such voters would make such a second choice, and the more realistic scenario where half of People’s Party voters would be prepared to vote Conservative.
On current projections, there are 25 seats where the Conservatives are behind either the Liberals (22) or the NDP (3) by a smaller margin than the People’s Party vote. The majority of these seats are in Ontario, despite it not being the People’s Party’s strongest riding, and this is a reflection of the number of battleground ridings in the province. This would bring the shape of the election from a reasonably-clear Liberal lead to a reasonably-clear Conservative lead, and would probably result in a different party in government.
However, it’s unlikely that all People’s Party voters would switch the Conservatives, so let’s consider what would happen if half of People’s Party voters switched to the Conservatives. In that case, it would be very close between the two main parties. The Conservatives may struggle to form a government in this scenario, but so would the Liberals. This is an irony of a first past the post system, as voters for the People’s Party may find their vote making those things they argue against, actually easier to achieve.
Canada’s 44th federal election will be held on Monday, September 20, 2021.
