If the Brexit Party wants their ideal Brexit, they need to go big or go home

The UK will leave the EU on 12 April 2019. Or not.

Who did Leave voters support in 2017?

It will come as very little surprise that the majority of Leave voters voted for the Conservatives at the last election. According to Survation, who conducted the most accurate final poll of the election campaign, nearly 63% of Leave voters voted Conservative, 24% voted Labour, 4% voted UKIP, 3½% voted Lib Dem, and nearly 6% for everyone else. (Most other polls gave broadly similar figures.)

Level 0: Remove Conservatives

Of course, we can’t apply a uniform swing on the Brexit Party, as it’s probably safe to assume that next to no Remain voters would even consider voting for them. So instead, we will increase the share of the vote for the Brexit Party proportionally to the estimated Leave vote in each constituency.

Level 1: Enter Parliament

In order to get their first seat Parliament, the Brexit Party would need to get around 45% of Leave voters (23% total) to support them.

Level 2: Second Opposition Party

By the time the Brexit Party gets to 56% of Leave voters (29% total), they will have surpassed the Lib Dems and SNP in Parliament, to become the third largest party on 55 seats. A sizable voting block indeed by this point, but still not enough to block Labour and the SNP teaming up to prevent their preferred Brexit from occurring.

Level 3: Official Opposition

After this point, we start to see their seat count skyrocket. Once they get to 62% of Leave voters (32% total), they will surpass the Conservatives to become the second largest party in the House of Commons, with 144 seats. Whereas before this point they were taking mostly Conservative-leaning Leave constituencies, now they start to take some Labour-leaning Leave constituencies as well.

Level 4: Largest Party

Once they get to 68% of Leave voters (35% total), they will surpass Labour to become the largest party, with 240 seats. Meanwhile, the Conservatives, on 84 seats, would be on their worst result since its predecessor party (the Tories) was founded in 1678.

Level 5: Majority Party

If 75% of Leave voters (39% total) decide to support the Brexit Party, it is at that point when they would get an overall majority in the House of Commons. (This figure is comparable to what the Conservative Party would need today.)

How the popular vote of the Brexit Party would impact potential seats in the House of Commons. (BREX dark blue, CON light blue, LAB red)

How realistic is all this?

According to an Opinium poll conducted last week, around 74% of Leave voters prefer to leave the EU without a deal, as opposed to a delay or revocation of Article 50. In order for the Brexit party to form a government to actually form a government, they would need to convince all of them to vote for them in an upcoming election, which is not realistic.

I am Joe. I am a techy at heart, a self-taught psephologist (political number cruncher), a pleasure cyclist, and someone who just calls things as he sees them.

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