This is an election unlike any other in recent history. Since last year’s vote to leave the European Union, politicians have been arguing amongst themselves about what exactly we have voted for. But will this election be able to settle this?
On current projections, Theresa May would be looking at a Commons majority of 172 seats. This far surpasses what Margaret Thatcher achieved in her 1983 landslide (144), though falls just short of what Tony Blair achieved in 1997 (177). But of course, this is a general election; voters will be thinking about more than just Brexit.
Two years ago, the issue of Europe was very low on the list of priorities for the British people, with only 1 in 5 saying it was one of their top 4 issues, and around that time, the appetite for leaving was quite low (57–43 to Remain was the average around the time). This time, though, the gravity of Brexit is becoming the biggest issue of the campaign, though far from exclusively so.
Each of the main parties has a strategy around this election. The Conservatives are trying to present themselves as the only party that can stand up to the perceived bogeyman that is the EU, while the Liberal Democrats are trying to appeal to Remain voters who want to reverse last year’s referendum. Labour, on the other hand, seem to be focusing their campaign on other issues, such as the NHS.
So where are voters on each side of the referendum debate going?
Theresa May’s stance towards Brexit appears to be music to the ears of those who voted to leave the EU last year. Nearly half of 2015 UKIP supporters plan to support the Tories next month, with a large number of 2015 Labour and LibDem voters who voted to leave going there as well.
As for the LibDems, it appears that their attempts to appeal to Remain voters is not working as well as they’d hope. The LibDems are up an estimated net 2% in this category of voters, though it’s interesting that there are voters flowing in both directions here, with nearly as many Remain voters leaving the LibDems as joining them.
A YouGov poll conducted last month may offer a reason why this is. It asked whether a referendum on the Brexit deal is the right thing to do. Look at how the LibDem voters of 2015 differ on this view from the LibDem voters of 2017.
This suggests to me that those Remain voters who are abandoning the LibDems are likely those who want to get on with Brexit without the need for a de facto second referendum, while those who are joining them are more keen to rerun the vote and try to reverse last year’s result.
What about Labour, though? Jeremy Corbyn has been attempting to focus the attention away from Brexit and towards other issues, specifically the NHS. They would be wise to do so, as their message is clearly resonating with those who see it as an issue. If they are able to get Brexit out of the voters’ minds, they have a chance to improve in the polls.
But there’s no doubt that Brexit is having a significant influence on this election, and many are abandoning previous allegiances on that basis. But it’s not as simple as Remain vs Leave, but rather, people will be thinking more about what the next steps should be. And that is what is sending voters in directions they would not normally go.
