The race is on. The legislature is about to be dissolved. And for the two main party leaders, Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney, the campaign to become Premier of the Canadian province of Alberta has begun.
Four years ago, when I woke up to news of an NDP (New Democratic Party) government in Alberta and the end of 34 years of Progressive Conservative (PC) rule, I had to do a double-take. For those not familiar with Canadian politics, having an NDP Premier in Alberta is like having a Democratic Governor in Texas. But a split in the vote between the PCs and Wildrose parties allowed the NDP, as the only large party on the left of the spectrum, to come up between them and win a majority government.
Since then, the PCs and Wildrose have merged, forming the United Conservative Party (UCP). Between this, and the redistribution coming from Elections Alberta, comparing next month’s election results with the 2015 results is an apples-to-chicken comparison. In order to determine the real change in voters’ sentiments over the last four years, we need to work out what would have happened in 2015, had that election been held under the same circumstances as today.
The riding boundaries don’t change the result of the election too much; the PCs would gain one seat from each of the NDP, Wildrose, and Liberals, as a result of polling stations moving from one riding to another. The NDP are still on 53 seats in the legislature, which is comfortably beyond the 44 needed for a majority government.
Once we have the notional results in each of the 87 ridings, we can then look for those seats where the NDP won with fewer votes than the PCs and Wildrose combined. (Yes, some voters would not vote for the combined party, but most of them would.)
In total, there are 28 seats, just under a third of the legislature, which go from orange to blue as a result of the merger. Half of these seats are in Calgary, with the other half spread up and down the province. These seats will, of course, be where this election will be won or lost; the NDP can only afford to lose nine seats before they lose their majority, and so they will be fighting to keep the MLAs they have there. The UCP, on the other hand, are hoping that the merger will produce the electoral gains that they were expecting.
The result, before a single vote changes between parties (apart from the merge), is a sizable UCP majority government, with their 61 seats being well beyond the 44 needed for a majority. The NDP, on 25 seats, would have official opposition status for the first time since 1993, and the Alberta Party would hold its one seat. This is the apples-to-apples comparison that I will be using to compare with next month’s vote.
The 2019 Alberta General Election will take place on Tuesday 16 April. Polls are open from 9am to 8pm MDT. More details on the election can be found on the Elections Alberta website.
