How an Anti-Brexit Alliance (or Pro-Brexit Alliance) would change the General Election arithmetic

LibDems gain Brecon and Radnorshire from Conservatives with 1,425 vote majority on 12.0% swing
LibDems gain Brecon and Radnorshire from Conservatives with 1,425 vote majority on 12.0% swing
Result of the by-election in Brecon and Radnorshire by-election

Base Scenario

Projection: CON 300–327, LAB 207–233, SNP 42–52, LD 34–48, PC 3–6, BREX 0–8, GRN 1–2, OTH 19–20
Projection: CON 300–327, LAB 207–233, SNP 42–52, LD 34–48, PC 3–6, BREX 0–8, GRN 1–2, OTH 19–20
Base scenario, based on current polling

Anti-Brexit Alliance

Projection: CON 279–308, LAB 196–222, LD 52–70, SNP 49–54, PC 7–15, BREX 0–7, GRN 1–4, OTH 19–20
Projection: CON 279–308, LAB 196–222, LD 52–70, SNP 49–54, PC 7–15, BREX 0–7, GRN 1–4, OTH 19–20
If an Anti-Brexit Alliance nominated a single candidate in each constituency

Pro-Brexit Alliance

Projection: CON 395–422, LAB 136–161, SNP 38–49, LD 20–31, PC 2–6, GRN 1, OTH 19
Projection: CON 395–422, LAB 136–161, SNP 38–49, LD 20–31, PC 2–6, GRN 1, OTH 19
If the Brexit Party encouraged their supporters to vote Conservative
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I am Joe. I am a techy at heart, a self-taught psephologist (political number cruncher), a pleasure cyclist, and someone who just calls things as he sees them.

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