Early on Friday morning, we will know whether Boris Johnson’s gamble of a snap election will have paid off. The Conservative Party needs to gain nine net seats to win a majority in the House of Commons, while Labour needs to gain 64 net seats to win a majority for themselves.
The majority of results are expected to be declared between 03:00 and 04:00, according to the Press Association. But by 02:00, we’ll have heard from around 100 constituencies, and within that there are a number of hints that we can get before then that should give us an idea of who will win this election.
Path to a Conservative Majority
Seven seats are expected to declare before 01:00, all of which should go to Labour. Their best chances of these are Sunderland Central and Newcastle Upon Tyne North, but even in a Conservative majority scenario neither of these are particularly likely to flip to the Conservatives.
Workington should declare around 01:00, and Darlington around 01:30. Both of these were won by Labour in 2017, and the Conservatives will want to pick both of them up to win their majority. If they pick up one, then it will be close, and if they pick up neither, then it will be the first sign of a disappointing night for them.
Battersea was a close result in 2017, and assuming no recounts this time, they expect to declare around 02:00. If the Conservatives miss this seat as well, there will be nerves going around Conservative headquarters. Around the same time, they’ll be looking to pick up seats like Bury North, Swansea West, Stockton South and Wrexham. If they win these, then they can bet on a majority government.
Path to a Labour Majority
The first Conservative seats expected to declare are Basildon and Billericay, and Broxbourne, both around 01:00. Neither of these are expected to go to Labour, even if they’re on track for a majority.
Also around 01:00 is the seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, which is a Labour seat which the SNP is chasing. If Labour can hold onto this seat, then it could be a sign that the SNP wave is cresting too early, which will be good for Labour.
The first Conservative seat that would be on the Labour target list is Nuneaton, expected to declare around 01:30. Meanwhile, at around 02:00, Labour would want to pick up seats like Carlisle, Harlow, Putney, North Swindon, Vale of Glamorgan, and Wycombe from the Conservatives, as well as West Dunbartonshire, East Kilbride, Lanark and Hamilton East, and Midlothian from the SNP, if they want to win a majority.
Expected Scorecard after 100 Seats
The first 100 seats are expected to have declared by around 02:00. If these seats were to go the same way in 2019 as they did in 2017, Labour would be leading the Conservatives by 27 seats at that point.
If the Conservatives have any lead at all after the first 100 seats, their majority will be secure.
If Labour are leading the Conservatives by around 12 seats after the first 100, then the likelihood of a Conservative majority is around 50:50.
If Labour holds a similar lead to last time after the first 100 seats, then a hung parliament will become a certainty.
If Labour are leading the Conservatives by around 40 seats after the first 100, then the likelihood of a Labour majority is around 50:50.
If Labour manages to double their lead after the first 100 seats, then it will be them who definitely win a majority.
