After the Prime Minister cancelled the vote on the EU Withdrawal Agreement, the Leader of the Opposition has called for the government to step aside so that he could negotiate a deal. Several MPs from across the opposition benches have written to Jeremy Corbyn to make a non-confidence motion later this week, though at this hour it appears that this motion will wait until Theresa May has been given a chance to re-negotiate.
Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, if the House of Commons passes a motion of no-confidence in the government, they will then have 14 days to form a new government or a general election will be called. Mr. Corbyn may attempt to argue that he could form a government that has the confidence of the Commons, with the support of other parties. But is he right?
After taking into account 7 Sinn Fein MPs and the Speaker, a party needs 322 seats for a de facto majority. Labour finished 55 seats behind the Conservatives in the last election, and this is less than the combined total of the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, and Greens. Given that this five-party total is less than the Conservatives alone, such a government will be nearly impossible to form.
But what about after a general election? On aggregate, polls are currently indicating a swing of around 1% from the Conservatives to Labour, which would still result in the Conservatives having the most seats in a hung parliament.
However, support of the DUP would no longer be enough to get the Conservatives over the line. In fact, the combined total of the Conservatives and DUP will match the combined total of Labour and the SNP (309–309). Support of the Liberal Democrats would be necessary to send either of these potential governments into power.
So he may be able to form a government on the result of a general election (if polls don’t move between now and then), but not on the current parliamentary arithmetic.
