In less than 60 hours, the 2019 federal election will be over. We might know who will govern Canada for the next four years. Alternatively, we might have no idea who will govern Canada for the next four months.
In the final Deep Dive of the campaign, we’ll look at three possible scenarios: a bare Liberal majority, a bare Conservative majority, and a tie. We’ll then break down how that would look in each region of Canada so that we can compare with the results as they come in.
Atlantic Canada
Polls in Newfoundland and Labrador are the first to close at 8pm Atlantic Time, with the three Maritime provinces closing half an hour later. Apart from one Québec riding, which has a special closing time due to it being split across two time zones, the 32 ridings in Atlantic Canada will be all that we hear from for a two-and-a-half-hour period.
The Liberals won all 32 of these ridings in 2015, and given the larger swing away from the Liberals here than elsewhere, there is no chance of them holding onto them all. If they manage to hold onto at least 26 seats in Atlantic Canada, then their majority is secure. On the other hand, if they drop below 20, their majority is lost.
Despite the large swing to the Conservatives here, the party is starting so far behind here that seats remain difficult to pick up. The Conservatives need to pick up at least nine seats here to have any chance of winning a majority. If they do really well, and win at least 17 seats in Atlantic Canada, then a Conservative majority becomes an inevitability.
If the Liberals were to lose around a dozen seats, with eight going Conservative and four to the New Democratic Party (NDP), then we can expect a very close run contest straight away. The Liberals holding onto at least 23 seats will certainly mean that they become the largest party, while the Conservatives picking up at least 12 will make them the largest party.
Québec
Most of Québec’s 78 ridings close as part of the large poll closings at 9:30pm Eastern Time (Gaspésie — Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine closes an hour earlier). The Liberals won 40 seats here in 2015, with 12 going to the Conservatives, 16 to the NDP and 10 to the Bloc Québécois.
As the Liberals have the smallest swing against them in Québec, they need to strongly defend the seats that they have here, and likely even make some gains, if they want to hold onto their majority. The Liberals need to hold onto pick up at least 2–3 seats if they want to have a 50:50 likelihood of keeping their majority, and if they finish with fewer than 33 seats in the province, their majority will be gone. If they make significant gains, and reach 54 seats, then their majority will be secure.
There are not particularly many seats in Québec where the Conservatives are competitive, so the likelihood of making meaningful gains there is not particularly large. That said, they will still need to defend their existing 12 seats, including (or making up for) that of former Conservative (now People’s Party Leader) Maxime Bernier in Beauce, if they want any chance of a majority. A handful of gains, bringing them up to around 17 seats, will be a sign of a certain majority.
The sign of a close result nationally will be a Liberal total in the mid-30s, with the Conservatives in the low double-digits. If either of these parties are able to pick up a few net seats here, then that party will likely become the largest party.
Ontario
Many of Ontario’s 121 ridings will be key to deciding who will be able to form a government. The Liberals won 80 of them in 2015, with 33 going Conservative and 8 going NDP. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives are down in the popular vote since 2015, though the Conservatives are expected to make gains as they are down less.
The Liberals cannot afford to lose more than three seats in Ontario before their chances of winning a majority drop below 50:50, with a result below 66 seats in the province meaning that their majority will be gone. The fate of one cabinet minister, Environment Minister Catherine McKenna (Ottawa Centre), could be linked with the Liberals’ majority prospects.
If the Conservatives want to have any chance of winning a majority, they will need to finish with at least 54 seats, with 62 seats needed for the Conservatives to get a 50:50 likelihood of a majority.
If the Conservatives pick up around a dozen seats in Ontario at the Liberals’ expense, with around eight being picked up by the NDP, then a close result is to be expected. In the balance could be Leona Alleslev (Aurora — Oak Ridges — Richmond Hill), the former Liberal MP who crossed the floor to the Conservatives last year.
Prairies
Most of the 62 ridings between Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are safe Conservative seats. The Conservatives won 44 of those seats in 2015, with 12 going to the Liberals and 6 to the NDP.
If the Liberals hold onto the 12 seats they won in 2015, then there is a high probability that they can hold onto their majority. On the other hand, losing more than half of these seats will rule out any likelihood of a Liberal majority. The focus in this part of Canada will be the four seats they hold in Alberta.
As there are not many seats for the Conservatives to gain here, but they will still need to make some gains to get to a majority government. They will need to pick up around 10 seats in the prairies in order to have a 50:50 chance of forming a majority government, with three seats either way of this being the difference between impossible and a certainty. Among the MPs they would need to defeat is Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale (Regina — Wascana), one of the 34 MPs who survived the Liberals’ 2011 election disaster.
Pre-Pacific Summary
By this point, we now have all of the 9:30pm Eastern closings, and we’re just waiting British Columbia and Yukon, which close half an hour later. Assuming we’ve heard from all 295 of these ridings by the time polls close on the west coast, the Liberals would be on a 50:50 likelihood of a majority if they’re on 155 seats by this point, while for the Conservatives, they’d need to be on 144 by this point to be on the same 50:50 likelihood of a majority, with five seats either side of that being the difference between impossible and certainty for both parties. If the Liberals are going to be the largest party, they would need to be 5–10 seats ahead of the Conservatives, in order to cushion themselves against the expected gains in BC.
British Columbia
Polls in British Columbia’s 42 ridings are the last to close at 7pm Pacific Time, and these ridings could mean the difference between the formation of a government or not. The Liberals won 17 here in 2015, with 10 going to the Conservatives, 14 to the NDP, and 1 going Green.
The Liberals’ vote share in BC is expected to fall more here than anywhere outside of the Maritimes. If the Liberals are able to hold onto all of their seats, then a majority is most likely. If they drop down into the single-figures, then their majority will be lost.
If the Conservatives want to have any chance of forming a government, they will need to double their seats in the province, from 10 to 20. If they triple it, and bring themselves up to 30 seats, then their majority will be assured. Among the MPs who could likely lose their seats in a Conservative majority scenario are Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan (Vancouver South) and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh (Burnaby South).
This is going to be a very close election, with nearly any result possible at this stage. With enough luck, we’ll be able to tell rather quickly whether or not we will get a clear result on Monday night.
