Deep Dive into the Potential Impact of the “United to Remain” Alliance
This week, three pro-Remain parties formed an agreement to not contest each other in certain constituencies. The Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Plaid Cymru have agreed to allow one joint candidate in 60 constituencies (49 in England, 11 in Wales), based upon who they think will have the best chance of winning. Of these 60 constituencies, 43 will only have a Lib Dem candidate, 10 will only have a Green candidate, and seven will only have a Plaid candidate.
This pact was trialed in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election held in the summer, and it’s highly likely that, in this constituency, the standing down of the Greens and Plaid Cymru is what allowed the Liberal Democrat candidate to win this seat. They will be hoping that a repeat in enough constituencies would lead to a stronger voice in Parliament for bringing an end to the UK’s departure from the European Union.
I looked at a possibility similar to this at the time, and found a nation-wide pact could net the alliance around 32 extra seats. But now that we have a confirmed pact (and more up-to-date polling), we can look at the specific seats to see where it could make a difference.
Same as 2017 (16)
In just over a quarter of the constituencies in this pact, there was only one candidate from the current Unite for Remain who stood in 2017, and so it’s difficult to argue that the pact would change the dynamic in these constituencies, as there’s not really a change in them. Of these, eight seats are currently projected to go to the Conservatives, seven to the Lib Dems, and one to the Greens.
Makes No Difference (28)
Normally, I would advise against the assumption that all supporters of one party would vote for another as a second preference, and of course, this note of caution should be made here too. But for this analysis, primarily for lack of any preference data for these parties, I’m going to do this anyway.
The seats where this pact would make a difference are those seats which are marginal with one of the parties in the pact, and nearly half of these seats are expected to be either Conservative vs Labour marginals, or not marginals at all, and there hasn’t been enough of a split between the other parties in the pact available for transfer that could make a difference.
Brecon and Radnorshire was won by the Liberal Democrats in an August by-election, likely because of this pact. But since then, the Conservatives went up around 7% in the polls, with the Lib Dems going down 2% in the same period. This is why this seat has moved into this category.
May (Probably Won’t) Impact Result (16)
There are not any seats that are part of the pact where the most likely winner has changed. However, in around a quarter of seats, the likelihood of a member of the alliance winning does go up, marginally in some cases, and significantly in others. In all likelihood, though, the pact isn’t likely to net the alliance more than a seat or two.
The Unite to Remain alliance has generated significant headlines, but the current agreement is not going to produce the kinds of seat gains that the parties involved will be hoping for. They will need to expand this agreement considerably, likely to every seat in Great Britain, in order to make a meaningful impact on the arithmetic of the new House of Commons.
