Eight years ago, the New Democratic Party reached a historic high by forming the official opposition for the first time in the party’s history. At this stage four years ago, they were practically tied with the Conservatives as the largest party in my seat projections.
Since then, NDP fortunes have plummeted. While they finished the 2015 campaign with their third-best seat result in their history (adjusted for the growing House of Commons), the loss of over half of their MPs led to Tom Mulcair’s ouster as leader two years later.
Now, under Jagmeet Singh’s leadership, the NDP is facing its worst result since 2004. While the party isn’t at a significant risk of losing official party status at the moment, it still sets them as far away from forming government as ever.
So where is the NDP in particular trouble?
When the NDP formed official opposition in 2011, more than half of their seats were in Québec. However, it was Tom Mulcair’s defense of the niqab that led to the party’s support in Québec starting to decline. Since then, Québec has become even more populist, as evidenced by the election of the CAQ provincially and the fact that they remain popular in polls there. While the central forecast still gives the NDP one seat in Québec (from 16 seats in 2015), even that seat is a toss-up.
The other big problem for the NDP is in British Columbia. There is a significant swing in that province towards the Green Party over the last few months, and most of this has been coming at the expense of the NDP. However, the number of marginal seats between the NDP and Greens is rather small in BC, while the number of marginal seats between the NDP and Conservatives is much larger. Of the 14 seats the NDP won in BC in 2015, the central forecast only gives them four seats (though those four are rather safe).
There is relatively good news for the NDP in Ontario, though. All three of the major parties are down in the vote in Ontario, with the NDP in the middle of the three. The resulting small swing between both parties and the NDP means that very few seats will change hands, and while a net loss of seats cannot be ruled out, it is more likely that they will finish with a few gains in Singh’s home province.
Of course, as the last two elections campaigns taught us, a lot can change between the writ drop and election day. But as the NDP battles to remain relevant, there remains a possibility (currently around one in ten) that the NDP could hold the balance of power in a minority parliament. This could bring us into the ironic situation of a party losing half of their MPs, but gaining more power. That, in itself, might be victory enough for Jagmeet Singh.
