Canada’s 44th federal election is now over. With certain postal votes still to be counted, it’s clear that the Liberals’ attempt to convert its minority government into a majority has failed. He has, though, managed to hold onto his job as Prime Minister, with a House of Commons that looks much the same as the one he had dissolved just over five weeks ago.
But there are a number of questions still to be answered. What if Canada had used an alternative electoral system? How much did the People’s Party affect the results, despite them winning no seats? Let’s explore some of these possibilities.
The People’s Party Effect
At the start of the campaign, the People’s Party were polling at a similarly-low level to where they wrapped up 2019. Throughout the campaign, we saw their support grow, with many asking if a split of the vote on the right could allow Justin Trudeau to stay in office.
In the end, the PPC finished below where most polls had placed them. They finished election night with a little over 5% of the popular vote, and they did not reach a double-digit percentage in any province. In individual ridings, they had eight top-two finishes and 24 top-three finishes, but finished in fourth place in more than half of ridings across the country.
An Ipsos poll from the start of the month estimated that around 30% of People’s Party voters would have voted the Conservatives as their second choice, with the rest not having a second choice among the major parties. If those 30% had indeed voted for the Conservatives, that would only be enough to swing five seats, of which four would come from the Liberals and one from the Bloc Québécois. That wouldn’t be enough to bring the Conservatives anywhere near being able to form a government.
Alternative Vote/Ranked Choice Vote
This is a bit of an unusual election by recent Canadian standards, as we have a degree of vote splitting on both the right and the left. There is a bit more on the left, and based on preferences from the same Ipsos poll, AV would see the Liberals and the NDP finish with a few more seats than they actually won last time. But the number of seats that would change hands isn’t actually that large in the end, and wouldn’t impact the overall result.
Proportional Representation
As the Conservatives finished with the most votes, they would finish with the most seats in the House of Commons if proportional representation was used. However, the NDP would hold the sole balance of power in this situation, which means that a Liberal-NDP coalition would be the only feasible government that could be formed from such a House of Commons.
Many countries who use proportional representation require a 5% minimum vote share in order to win any seats in Parliament. In 2019, this would have seen the Green Party in and the People’s Party out. This time, the reverse would be true.
If we went by province, the Greens would reach the 5% threshold in British Columbia to pick up a couple of seats. The People’s Party would win a decent block of seats, but not as many as they could do because they’re getting more votes in smaller provinces, which is less efficient in a PR system. But the NDP would still have enough seats to hold the balance of power on its own, making a coalition government the most likely outcome of such a result.
Single Transferable Vote
The Single Transferable Vote is a semi-proportional system used for the Irish Parliament and the Australian Senate, among other places. For this model, each riding has between 3 and 5 seats, and a ranked-ballot methodology produces a result that is theoretically proportional within each riding.
As with other forms of proportional representation, the Conservatives would finish with the most seats, and the NDP would hold the balance of power. Unlike other forms of proportional representation, though, it’s harder for smaller parties like the Greens and People’s Party to win any seats.
Justin Trudeau said just before the election that he was “open to” looking at electoral reform in the new Parliament, though he did break a similar promise he made in 2015. We don’t know what options may be under consideration, and we know that each will produce a slightly different result. Whether any of the above would be attractive to enough parties to get implemented will remain to be seen.
