Joe C – Medium

Joe C

This time, it’s not just a simple swing for a Labour majority

The classic swingometer suggests that Labour is on the edge of being able to form a majority. But drilling down tells a different story.

4 min readMay 7, 2023

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This time, it’s not just a simple swing for a Labour majority

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Joe C

The Expected Effects of Canadian Redistribution

The ten provincial redistricting commissions have published their reports. I look at what it means for the parties in the House of Commons.

9 min readFeb 17, 2023

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CANADA REDISTRIBUTED 2021 SEAT ESTIMATE (CHANGE FROM ACTUAL 2021 RESULT): LIBERAL 153 (-7); CONSERVATIVE 130 (+11); BLOC QUÉBÉCOIS 34 (+2); NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY 24 (-1); GREEN 2 (±0)

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Joe C

It’s not been a bad week for the UK Conservatives. It’s been far, far worse than that.

The reaction to last week’s fiscal statement has been swift and severe. The party now faces its worst results ever.

3 min readOct 2, 2022

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It’s not been a bad week for the UK Conservatives. It’s been far, far worse than that.

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Joe C

PR in the UK: Sizing Up the Regions

After Labour Conference voted for Proportional Representation, I look at the impact of region sizes on the proportionality of the result.

4 min readSep 30, 2022

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PR in the UK: Sizing Up the Regions

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Joe C

PR in the UK: Mixed Member Proportional

After Labour Conference voted for Proportional Representation, I look at Mixed Member Proportional, and the specific questions it presents.

6 min readSep 29, 2022

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PR in the UK: Mixed Member Proportional

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Joe C

PR in the UK: Allocation of Seats

After Labour Conference voted for Proportional Representation, I look at how formula selection impacts the voices in Parliament.

4 min readSep 28, 2022

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PR in the UK: Allocation of Seats

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Joe C

PR in the UK: Getting Into Parliament

After Labour Conference voted for Proportional Representation, I look at the effects of setting thresholds for winning seats in Parliament.

4 min readSep 27, 2022

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PR in the UK: Getting Into Parliament

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Joe C

U.S. Redistricting: One Hand Gives, The Other Takes Away

The shape of Congress, and its 435 districts, is about to change. But how do they compare with the districts from the past decade?

4 min readAug 22, 2022

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U.S. Redistricting: One Hand Gives, The Other Takes Away

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Joe C

Canada’s Election Results in Alternative Scenarios

Canada’s 44th federal election is now over. Did the PPC spoil it for the Conservatives? And what about other electoral systems?

5 min readSep 21, 2021

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Canada’s Election Results in Alternative Scenarios

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Joe C

Signs and Signals for Tomorrow Night

Liberal or Conservative? Minority or Majority? What I’ll be looking for in the early results to work out what Canadians have decided.

6 min readSep 19, 2021

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Signs and Signals for Tomorrow Night

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Joe C

Joe C

I am Joe. I am a techy at heart, a self-taught psephologist (political number cruncher), a pleasure cyclist, and someone who just calls things as he sees them.

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