Joe C – Medium

Joe C

Breaking Down the NDP Collapse

Since the dissolution of Parliament last month, federal polling for the general election has been rather steady. But the Liberals’ meteoric…

2d ago

Breaking Down the NDP Collapse

2d ago

The current Liberal lead is enough for a majority. Why wouldn’t it be enough for the Conservatives?

Under Canada’s electoral system, it’s not just about how many votes each party gets. Where they get those votes is just as important.

Mar 30

The current Liberal lead is enough for a majority. Why wouldn’t it be enough for the Conservatives?

Mar 30

Canada’s 45th Federal Election Now Under Way

Nine days after becoming Prime Minister, Mark Carney has visited the Governor General and asked for a dissolution of Parliament and general…

Mar 23

Canada’s 45th Federal Election Now Under Way

Mar 23

Three provincial elections in nine days: a preview

Over the next couple of weeks, there are elections in British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan. How is each province shaping up?

Oct 12, 2024

Three provincial elections in nine days: a preview

Oct 12, 2024

The Tory coalition collapsed. Where to start rebuilding it?

Potential Tory leadership contenders all have explanations to why they were so comprehensively defeated. The question is: who is right?

Jul 14, 2024

The Tory coalition collapsed. Where to start rebuilding it?

Jul 14, 2024

Can a National Rally majority be prevented?

The first round of France’s National Assembly elections opened the possibility of a far-right government. Can other parties stop it?

Jul 6, 2024

Can a National Rally majority be prevented?

Jul 6, 2024

Are we about to see a repeat of 1993?

In 1993, Canada’s Conservative party got decimated by a new Reform Party. Are we about to see the same in the UK?

Jun 30, 2024

Are we about to see a repeat of 1993?

Jun 30, 2024

The Lib Dems are flat in the polls. So why is their seat count about to soar?

The Liberal Democrats’ electoral fate is based more on the Conservatives’ performance than their own. And that’s nothing new.

Jun 29, 2024

The Lib Dems are flat in the polls. So why is their seat count about to soar?

Jun 29, 2024

This time, it’s not just a simple swing for a Labour majority

The classic swingometer suggests that Labour is on the edge of being able to form a majority. But drilling down tells a different story.

May 7, 2023

This time, it’s not just a simple swing for a Labour majority

May 7, 2023

The Expected Effects of Canadian Redistribution

The ten provincial redistricting commissions have published their reports. I look at what it means for the parties in the House of Commons.

Feb 17, 2023

CANADA REDISTRIBUTED 2021 SEAT ESTIMATE (CHANGE FROM ACTUAL 2021 RESULT): LIBERAL 153 (-7); CONSERVATIVE 130 (+11); BLOC QUÉBÉCOIS 34 (+2); NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY 24 (-1); GREEN 2 (±0)

Feb 17, 2023

Joe C

Joe C

I am Joe. I am a techy at heart, a self-taught psephologist (political number cruncher), a pleasure cyclist, and someone who just calls things as he sees them.

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