PinnedAre we about to see a repeat of 1993?In 1993, Canada’s Conservative party got decimated by a new Reform Party. Are we about to see the same in the UK?Jun 30, 20241Jun 30, 20241
PinnedThe Lib Dems are flat in the polls. So why is their seat count about to soar?The Liberal Democrats’ electoral fate is based more on the Conservatives’ performance than their own. And that’s nothing new.Jun 29, 20241Jun 29, 20241
Three provincial elections in nine days: a previewOver the next couple of weeks, there are elections in British Columbia, New Brunswick and Saskatchewan. How is each province shaping up?Oct 12, 2024Oct 12, 2024
The Tory coalition collapsed. Where to start rebuilding it?Potential Tory leadership contenders all have explanations to why they were so comprehensively defeated. The question is: who is right?Jul 14, 2024Jul 14, 2024
Can a National Rally majority be prevented?The first round of France’s National Assembly elections opened the possibility of a far-right government. Can other parties stop it?Jul 6, 2024Jul 6, 2024
This time, it’s not just a simple swing for a Labour majorityThe classic swingometer suggests that Labour is on the edge of being able to form a majority. But drilling down tells a different story.May 7, 2023May 7, 2023
The Expected Effects of Canadian RedistributionThe ten provincial redistricting commissions have published their reports. I look at what it means for the parties in the House of Commons.Feb 17, 2023Feb 17, 2023
It’s not been a bad week for the UK Conservatives. It’s been far, far worse than that.The reaction to last week’s fiscal statement has been swift and severe. The party now faces its worst results ever.Oct 2, 20221Oct 2, 20221
PR in the UK: Sizing Up the RegionsAfter Labour Conference voted for Proportional Representation, I look at the impact of region sizes on the proportionality of the result.Sep 30, 2022Sep 30, 2022
PR in the UK: Mixed Member ProportionalAfter Labour Conference voted for Proportional Representation, I look at Mixed Member Proportional, and the specific questions it presents.Sep 29, 2022Sep 29, 2022